How Elections Impact the Job Market

What effect, if any, do elections have on the job market and hiring trends?

Election years tend to usher in changes to things like employment, corporate spending, and investments. Additionally, American workers will be paying close attention to the candidates’ past policies on job creation, taxes, inflation, and, more importantly, AI technology advancements.

AI advancements are a key topic in the job market and in the 2024 election, setting it apart from previous election years. It’s estimated that around 30% of the American workforce “could see at least half of their work tasks impacted” by current GenAI. Depending on how the two presidential candidates address these issues leading up to the election, and in the weeks after-the-fact, workers will have to adapt. At the moment, neither candidate has said much about the increased use of AI in the workplace. This could cause workers to stay in more secure jobs rather than face a labor market that might have fewer openings.

State of the Economy Going into November

To the relief of many, the US economy has shown signs of recovery over the past year. According to expert Kenneth Louie, associate professor of economics at Penn State, the economy “is continuing to display remarkable resilience as reflected in three important economic indicators: employment, output, or the quantity of goods and services produced; and earnings.

Research tends to back up Louie's claims, with one outlet describing the US economy as “fundamentally strong” and that “all available evidence suggests policymakers may have managed to bring inflation under control without causing a recession.”

Economically speaking, American workers have many reasons to feel confident, which could lead to them taking more risk in their career—like moving jobs or starting their own businesses. If they feel the president-elect is able to maintain a strong economy, that’ll also have a major impact on their career-based decisions.

The Response from CEOs and Hiring Managers

Despite the positive outlooks on the economy, roughly 30% of business owners have decided to scale back–or even permanently cancel—their investment plans. This is primarily due to the uncertainty of this election. The front-runners in this presidential election have very different policies regarding economic spending, taxes, etc., so CEOs are taking a ‘wait and see’ approach.

For some businesses, sitting tight could mean little to no expansion. Or, in more dramatic cases, the uncertainty of this election could lead to some CEO’s deciding to ‘trim the fat,’ so to speak. There isn’t any evidence that a mass layover event could be on the horizon, but for workers thinking of switching jobs, you may want to keep this corporate hesitancy to spend money in mind.

Issues that Matter to the American Worker

The experts say that the economy is doing well, but American citizens feel otherwise. One poll found that 40% of Americans described the economy as being in ‘poor condition’. Is this a sign of disconnect between economic predictions and lived experience? Is the average American still struggling to recover financially from the pandemic? Is there a completely different explanation?

It’s hard to say.

But what’s really important about this statistic is that nearly half of the population—meaning a large percentage of the American workforce—does not feel confident about the state of the economy. This is likely to affect their behaviors regarding career decisions.

Another issue that’s proven to be quite prevalent in this election is the support (or lack thereof) of unions. On a local level, politicians who support laws like ‘right-to-work’ are under fire from both union-members and non-union workers alike. Research shows that ‘individuals living in states with stronger unions are more likely to vote...”

In other words, while elections can impact the American workforce, the American workforce can have an even bigger impact on elections if everyone voted.

Final Thoughts

Even at the local level, elected officials influence important issues like workers' rights, job accessibility, and AI regulation. It's essential to have representatives who align with your interests and priorities.

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